{"id":212,"date":"2025-09-10T09:14:28","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T09:14:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/menastability.org\/?p=212"},"modified":"2026-03-30T10:03:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T10:03:32","slug":"after-the-twelve-days-the-israel-iran-ceasefire-and-the-remaking-of-middle-eastern-security","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/menastability.org\/ar\/institute-for-mena-stability\/after-the-twelve-days-the-israel-iran-ceasefire-and-the-remaking-of-middle-eastern-security\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0646\u064a \u0639\u0634\u0631 \u064a\u0648\u0645\u0627\u064b: \u0648\u0642\u0641 \u0625\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0625\u0633\u0631\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0644 \u0648\u0625\u064a\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u062a\u0634\u0643\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0633\u0637"},"content":{"rendered":"

Two months after the ceasefire that ended the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is grappling with a security landscape that has been fundamentally altered. The brief but intense conflict, which began on 13 June when Israel launched strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, military sites and regime infrastructure, and ended with a US-brokered ceasefire on 24 June, produced consequences that extend well beyond the bilateral relationship between Tehran and Tel Aviv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The War and Its Immediate Toll<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The conflict killed over 600 people in Iran and 29 in Israel, according to the Congressional Research Service<\/a>. Israeli strikes degraded several Iranian military and government facilities, destroyed a significant portion of Iran\u2019s ballistic missile launchers, and caused major damage to nuclear sites including the underground enrichment facility at Fordow. The United States directly participated on 22 June, deploying B-2 Spirit bombers armed with GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator munitions against three key nuclear installations. Iran retaliated throughout the conflict with waves of ballistic missiles, some of which evaded Israeli and American air defences and struck residential areas, including neighbourhoods in Tel Aviv and Bat Yam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ceasefire, brokered through Qatar with significant pressure from US President Donald Trump, took effect on 24 June. It initially appeared fragile, with violations by both sides in the opening hours killing 20 people. Trump publicly expressed frustration with both parties for failing to uphold the agreement. The ceasefire held, partly as a result of continued American intervention with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nuclear Implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The war\u2019s most consequential legacy may be its impact on the global non-proliferation regime. CIA Director John Ratcliffe stated that intelligence indicated several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would require years to rebuild. An Iranian official acknowledged that nuclear installations had been badly damaged. The IAEA Director General confirmed that significant damage was expected at Fordow. In the war\u2019s aftermath, Iran\u2019s parliament approved a fast-track bill on suspending cooperation with the IAEA, and senior officials signalled that Tehran might cease complying with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Foundation for Strategic Research<\/a> warned that Iran\u2019s degraded military deterrence could paradoxically strengthen hardliners\u2019 arguments that only nuclear weapons can provide adequate security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regional Reverberations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The conflict sent oil prices spiking into the $80 per barrel range and briefly raised the spectre of wider regional conflagration. Iran\u2019s final act before the ceasefire was launching 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, targeting US forces. No casualties were reported, but the strike underscored the vulnerability of Gulf military installations and raised questions about the security of US basing arrangements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the Gulf states, the Twelve-Day War reinforced the strategic calculus that has driven their hedging behaviour for the past decade. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Qatar and others have invested heavily in diplomatic relationships with both Washington and Tehran, and the conflict validated the wisdom of maintaining those channels. According to the Middle East Institute<\/a>, the geopolitical risk premium created by the war came and went within a single month, but the underlying message was clear: direct confrontation between Israel and Iran carries systemic risks for the entire region\u2019s energy infrastructure and economic stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ceasefire\u2019s Fragility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The terms of the ceasefire remain deliberately vague, a feature that allows both sides to construct their own narratives but makes the agreement inherently unstable. Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader Khamenei resurfaced on 26 June to claim a decisive victory, a characterisation that Israeli and Western observers dismissed. Trump stated that further US strikes could follow if Iran resumed enrichment. The lack of a formal framework for verification or dispute resolution means the ceasefire functions more as a pause than a settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the wider region, the most pressing concern is what comes next. Iran\u2019s conventional military capabilities have been substantially degraded, but its network of proxy relationships across Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria remains intact. The Houthis continued maritime attacks in the Red Sea throughout the conflict. Hezbollah, though weakened by the 2024 war with Israel, retains significant capacity. The question facing policymakers is whether Iran will seek to rebuild its conventional deterrent, accelerate a nuclear weapons programme, or rely more heavily on asymmetric tools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0627\u062a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The post-ceasefire period through the remainder of 2025 will be defined by three dynamics. First, the trajectory of US-Iran diplomacy: Trump indicated that nuclear talks would follow, but Tehran has sent mixed signals about negotiating under duress. Second, the durability of the ceasefire itself, which rests on American willingness to restrain Israel and on Iranian calculations about the costs of renewed hostilities. Third, the broader regional order, in which Gulf states will continue to balance between their security partnership with Washington and their desire to avoid becoming frontline targets. The Twelve-Day War demonstrated that direct conflict between Israel and Iran produces no winners, only varying degrees of loss. Whether that lesson translates into a more durable framework for managing the rivalry will depend on diplomatic efforts that have barely begun.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Two months after the ceasefire that ended the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is grappling with a security landscape that has been fundamentally altered. The brief but intense conflict, which began on 13 June when Israel launched strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, military sites and regime infrastructure, and ended with a US-brokered ceasefire on 24 June, produced consequences that extend well beyond the bilateral relationship between Tehran and Tel Aviv.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":235,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,41,181,4,188],"tags":[221,20,9,15,19,11,7,222],"class_list":["post-212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-institute-for-mena-stability","category-iran","category-israel","category-middle-east","category-us","tag-12-day-war","tag-institute-for-mena-stability","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-mena","tag-mena-stability","tag-middle-east","tag-qatar-ceasefire"],"yoast_head":"\nAfter the Twelve Days: The Israel-Iran Ceasefire and the Remaking of Middle Eastern Security - The Institute For MENA Stability<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/menastability.org\/ar\/institute-for-mena-stability\/after-the-twelve-days-the-israel-iran-ceasefire-and-the-remaking-of-middle-eastern-security\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ar_AR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"After the Twelve Days: The Israel-Iran Ceasefire and the Remaking of Middle Eastern Security - The Institute For MENA Stability\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Two months after the ceasefire that ended the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is grappling with a security landscape that has been fundamentally altered. 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